November 27, 2007

NFL Week 13 Predictions

November 27, 2007, 9:00 AM | 3 Comments

Note: Predictions for week 13 of the 2008 NFL season can be found here: NFL Week 13 Predictions.

Well, if all goes as planned, this post will go live at 9:00 AM on Tuesday, November 27^th, but I’ll let you in on a little secret – I wrote this last week after the Thanksgiving day games. This week I’m on vacation and can’t guarantee that I’ll be near a computer, so I figured I’d write this ahead of time and let my site work its magic.

What that means is that only 6 teams (The Packers, Lions, Cowboys, Jets, Colts and Falcons) will have up-to-date standings beside their names and that week 12’s results (for the most part) won’t play into my analysis for week 13 games. Yes, it adds a degree of difficulty to pick the games this far ahead of time without regard to last week’s happenings or the latest injury news, but hey, that’s all part of the fun! What’s important is that just like every other Tuesday, there’s something here for you to read this week! I hope you appeciate my dedication… ;)

Game of the Week: Packers at Cowboys

In what very well could be a preview of the NFC Championship game this year, the Packers will be heading to Dallas to decide once and for all who the team to beat in the NFC is. If the Packers win this game, not only will they clinch the NFC North, but they’ll also have the inside track on claiming home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Obviously, there’s a lot for the Pack to play for this week. If they don’t win, they’ll still have a chance at the NFC’s top seed (due to a slightly easier closing schedule), but Dallas would hold the tie-breaker.

If the Packers want the road to the Super Bowl to come through Lambeau Field in January, it’s going to be up to them to decide that in the last game of November. OK OK, enough playoff scenarios. I’ve been looking forward to this game since before the Patriots/Colts Super Bowl XLI ½ and it’s great that it’s played out to be the match of the year in the NFC with both teams holding a 10-1 record.

You can acuse me of being a homer if you want, but I really think that the Packers can win this game, and I have a feeling that they will. Dallas has a great team and will have an advantage playing at home, but I’m not sure it’ll be enough to equalize… I could be totally wrong though.

Forgive me from going stats-mad in this analysis, but I think that after 11 games, stats start to actually mean something. First, the offenses. On average, The Cowboys offense gains a few more yards per game (388.8) than the Packers (380.4) and they hold the advantage in points per game (32.5 vs. 26.9). Dallas also holds the defensive advantage in yards allowed (299.1 to the Packers 315.4), but the key stat to me is the Packers advantage when it comes to points allowed (16.8 to the Cowboys 20.1). I’ve been saying all year long that the Packers are playing a very good “bend but don’t break” style of defense where they may allow their opponents to eat up some yardage from time to time, but when push comes to shove, they’re making it extremely hard to put TDs on the board. The first half of the Thanksgiving day game in Detroit was perfect eviidence of this.

One other thing I think is important to recognize is that the Packers have the league’s 2^nd ranked passing attack going against the Cowboys 21^st ranked passing defense. Just for full disclosure, the Cowboys have the league’s 5^th ranked passing attack and the Packers pass D ranks 18^th. What all this says to me is that this game could turn into a shootout and could quite possibly be more exciting that the Colts/Patriots game earlier this season.

And finally, the Dallas Cowboys have been a pretty consistent team this year, not really getting any worse or better with each passing week, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Green Bay on the other hand appears to be getting better and better with each game, and that’s got to be a scary proposition for the Cowboys.

Please don’t get me wrong, these teams are fairly evenly matched if you look at the numbers and the Cowboys could very well win this game at home, but when it comes to the numbers that matter (points allowed, pass offense vs. pass defense) I think the Packers have a slight advantage. They also have Brett Favre, who needs to be in every discussion about this season’s MVP. Really, the only thing I’m concerned about this week are all the injuries the Packers have sustained over the past couple of games, especially in Detroit. 

Anyways, enough on that, hopefully I’ve stated my reasoning for picking Green Bay and hopefully they win. You are free to disagree and I’m sure many of you will, but that’s fine by me. Also, please know that if I wanted to I could definitely make a case for the Cowboys by picking some other stats as well (like rushing offense/defense).

Here are my picks for week 13!

Away	Home	Comments	Pick	Result
Packers (10-2)	Cowboys (11-1)	See my “Game of the Week” section above.
49ers (3-8)	Panthers (4-7)	Is this the week where the Panthers finally play well at home? Well, against the anemic 49ers offense, they should be able to play well enough to win.
Texans (5-6)	Titans (6-5)	Tennessee is just a better overall team and they play better at home than Houston does on the road.
Bills (5-6)	Redskins (5-6)	Tough match to pick really. These teams are fairly evenly matched but I think the Redskins have a slight edge becasue they’re getting better QB play than the Bills are.
Falcons (3-8)	Rams (2-9)	As long as Marc Bulger and the rest of the Rams offense keeps playing well (and stays healthy) the Rams should win a few more down the stretch, starting with this week’s game against the Falcons.
Chargers (6-5)	Chiefs (4-7)	While I like Kansas City’s chances in this game, the Chargers are in a dog-fight with the Broncos for the AFC West and have to win divisional matches if they want any shot.
Lions (6-5)	Vikings (5-6)	Detroit’s offense should be able to carry them to a win against Minnesota… as long as they play up to their potential.
Jets (2-9)	Dolphins (0-11)	Only because I just can’t pick the Dolphins.
Jaguars (8-3)	Colts (9-2)	The Colts need to win this game to keep the Jaguars at bay in the AFC South race, they’ll be ready after having 10 days to prepare… and they might get WR Marvin Harrison back.
Seahawks (7-4)	Eagles (5-6)	I think Philly has a chance to win this one at home because Seattle has been a terrible road team this season (1-3 on the road up until week 12).
Browns (7-4)	Cardinals (5-6)	The Browns have shown a lot of great things this year and look like they’re going to push the Steelers for the AFC North crown. Arizona has been better lately though, so I think this game could be fairly close… I think.
Broncos (5-6)	Raiders (3-8)	The Broncos need to win to keep pace with San Diego and cannot allow this game to slip by… it’s the Raiders.
Buccaneers (7-4)	Saints (5-6)	I’m going with my gut on this one… the Saints are not the same team from a year ago.
Giants (7-4)	Bears (5-6)	It’s been a disappointing year for the Bears and a pretty good one for the Giants. I think this will be close, but I’ll stay with NY.
Bengals (4-7)	Steelers (8-3)	I was kind of hoping the Bengals would be good this year… they’re not.
Patriots (12-0)	Ravens (4-8)	Do I need to explain this?

This week’s poll: Who do you think is this year’s Coach of the Year? Cast your votes and let me know what you think! My pick is for Mike McCarthy of the Packers, hands down. It really has to be; no one expected the Packers to be this good and McCarthy has started his Green Bay head coaching career better than any other Packers head coach that’s gone before him… and that’s saying a lot. Remember Lombardi?

Here are this week’s ESPN Expert Picks. Check back after the games for updated standings and further thoughts.

Update: 10-6 this week. Decent when you consider I picked these games 10 days in advance, but not great. My season total is now a pedestrian 129-63, or 67.2%. What a game on Monday night! Are the Patriots starting to show some cracks?

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