October 30, 2007
NFL Week 9 Predictions
October 30, 2007, 6:48 PM | 4 Comments
Note: Predictions for week 9 of the 2008 NFL season can be found here: NFL Week 9 Predictions.
I’m still pumped up about the Packers win last night! Their 6-1 start this season has been so exciting to watch as a Packers fan, and most NFL fans in general will agree that it’s really nice to see Brett Favre having success this season. I’m so glad that he stuck around to play again this year, because there isn’t one person in the NFL that’s more fun to watch than Brett.
Last week I had a really good week going 11-2 to bring my season total at the mid-way point up to 81-35. I would say that so far this season, even though there’s been a lot of surprises, upsets and blowouts, I’ve faired pretty well. That’s about as much bragging as you’ll ever hear out of me though, because I know that every weekend in the NFL is different and so many things can change on any given Sunday.
This week features a lot of key match-ups that are going to be exciting to watch. Focusing again on the Packers, Brett Favre will have a chance against the Kansas City Chiefs to join Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as the only QBs in the history of the NFL that have beaten 31 teams. Manning and Brady accomplished that feat last week against the Panthers and Redskins respectively, and with a win over the Chiefs on Sunday, Favre can join those ranks.
Game of the Week: Patriots at Colts
Was there any doubt what my pick for Game of the Week would be? I mean, come on. Most NFL fans, analysts and even players are already calling this game “Super Bowl XLI ½” and for good reason. This is the type of Super Bowl that every fan wants to see year in and year out as the 2 best teams in the league go head to head, but, because the Colts and Patriots are both in the AFC, this Super Bowl won’t ever happen.
Adding to the intrigue is that in the long history of the NFL, never have 2 unbeaten teams met so far into the season. This could quite possibly be the biggest regular season game in NFL history and the only bad part is that someone’s got to lose. My pick will come later, but let me just say this. If the Patriots are going to lose at all this season (assuming of course that they don’t rest their regulars in late December after they’ve already clinched home-field advantage in the AFC) the Colts are the team that’s going to beat them.
In the NFL, the Patriots are 1 and the Colts are 1A this year and the only reason most people put the Pats ahead of the Colts is due to the impressive margin of victory that New England has been brutalizing their opponents by. What I’ll be looking to see this week is how Indy’s defense is going to stop the aerial attack of Tom Brady and the Patriots. I think the Colts have proven that they’re able to contain the run this season and the Patriots have had some struggles running the ball all year (due mostly to injury). If the Colts can somehow find a way to limit the Patriots receivers to… you know, less than 1,000 yards, they should have a shot to keep their team in the game.
I really am expecting a full-blown shootout though and the Colts can win this game based on a few things. First, they’re at home and their fans will be doing everything they possibly can to get into Brady’s head and disrupt his brain. Second, I think the Colts have actually had a slightly tougher schedule so far this season (and it’s not looking any easier in the next few weeks) and have really (quietly) handed down some beatings of their own on fairly good football teams. Yeah, they haven’t been 45 point victories, but they’re still been pretty impressive.
If the Colts can use their pass-rush effectively and disrupt Tom Brady even a little bit, they should be able to keep the Patriots under their average of 42 points (or whatever it is).
With all that said… I still have to pick the Patriots to win this game. Bill Belichick and the Patriots I think now have a personal vendetta against the entire NFL to prove that their spying was really a non-factor. What “Spy-Gate” did though was to leave a bit of doubt in some heads about how legitimate the Patriots (and their Super Bowl titles) have been over the past few years. New England almost seems like their out to prove themselves yet again, and quite frankly, it’s working.
I also really don’t think that the Colts secondary matches up well against the receiving corps of the Patriots. Randy Moss has been super-human so far this year, reminding everyone of just how good he is. In his days in Minnesota, he made Dante Culpepper look like a superstar, but without Moss, Culpepper has been a very average QB, even before his knee blew up. If that’s what Moss can do with an average QB, it’s no surprise the numbers he’s putting up with a great QB.
So there you have it. I know this week’s summary has been extra long… but this week is going to be huge, so it’s kind of warranted. Well, that and I spend a lot of time on the train commuting to work, and the wifi (which by the way is awesome when it’s working) was down this morning. ;)
Here are my picks for week 9!
| Away | Home | Comments | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panthers(4-4) |  Titans(6-2) | For the first quarter, the Panthers had the Colts right where they wanted them last week. Unfortunately for them, it didn’t last. Tennessee has been surprisingly good this year I think they’ll win in a close one. | | |
 Packers(7-1) |  Chiefs(4-4) | If you missed Monday night’s game, I’d suggest you take a look at the highlights. The Chiefs are going to be a difficult team for the Packers to beat, but I like the Packers run D for this game. Hopefully Green Bay’s rushing offense will continue the success they had last week. I think the Pack wins this one at Arrowhead. | | |
 Bengals(2-6) |  Bills(4-4) | After taking Buffalo and getting it right 2 weeks in a row, I think it’s time to take a bit of a risk this week on the Bengals, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills come out on top again. | | |
 Chargers(4-4) |  Vikings(3-5) | San Diego has really turned it around over the past couple of weeks. They’re also in a weak AFC West, so they have a little room to wiggle this year, but they’ve got to win these games against the NFL’s lower-ranked teams. Minnesota could eek out a victory here, but I don’t see it happening. Adrian Peterson has really started to come back down to earth, but even if he’s on his A game, there’s only so much he can do. | | |
 Cardinals(3-5) |  Buccaneers(5-4) | If Jeff Garcia doesn’t throw 3 more interceptions this week, the Buccaneers should win. | | |
 Broncos(3-5) |  Lions(6-2) | Detroit’s 5-2 start is even more surprising than Tennessee’s and Jon Kitna may have been on to something when he predicted that the Lions would win 10 games this season. The Broncos lost in heart-breaking fashion to the Packers last week and will really be looking to avenge that loss. Jay Cutler should be able to go to town on a bad Lions defense, but Detroit may make it close with their own offensive firepower. I’ll take Denver though. | | |
 Jaguars(5-3) |  Saints(4-4) | I was pretty surprised last week when the Jaguars won, but it wasn’t really due to any spectacular play by Quinn Gray (7/16, 100 yards, 1 TD). Turnovers were the name of the game last week in Tampa Bay as Jeff Garcia threw his first 3 interceptions of the season. I don’t think the Jags will be as fortunate against a resurgent Saints team that really needs this win. | | |
 49ers(2-6) |  Falcons(2-6) | I honestly don’t even want to pick this game as this is for sure the stinker of the week. I think I’ll go Atlanta’s way for 2 reasons: 1. They’re at home and 2. They had the bye week last week. | | |
 Redskins(5-3) |  Jets(1-8) | The Redskins have handled last week’s loss to the Patriots with a lot of class, but there’s no doubt in my mind that they’re angry about how bad they played. The Jets are going to make a QB change, but that’s not the only thing that’s causing them to lose. It’s hard to pick the Jets at all – and I won’t – but they could take this one. | | |
 Seahawks(4-4) |  Browns(5-3) | Seattle has been mediocre so far this season and if they don’t watch out, someone is going to take their place in the NFC W… who am I kidding, the Seahawks have almost clinched their division, haven’t they? 8-8 might win the West this year. | | |
 Patriots(9-0) |  Colts(7-1) | If the over/under was set at 90 points for this one… no one would blame you for taking the over. | | |
 Texans(4-5) |  Raiders(2-6) | After a promising start, the Texans are really struggling and Matt Schaub suffered a concussion last week. If early indications are anything to think about, Schaub may not play this week against the Raiders who could win this one at home. I’ll take them as my upset of the week. | | |
 Cowboys(7-1) |  Eagles(3-5) | Tony Romo just got paid in a big way (30 million in guaranteed money for his new contract) and it’s nice that the Cowboys finally have a QB that looks like he’ll be “the guy” in Big D for a long time. T.O. makes his yearly appearance in Philly and you can bet he’ll want us all to get our collective popcorn ready. | | |
 Ravens(4-4) |  Steelers(6-2) | This should be a pretty good game on MNF. I’ll take the Steelers because I just can’t pick the Ravens until they get their offensive issues all sorted out. | | |
| Note: the Bears (3-5), Dolphins (0-8), Giants (6-2) and Rams (0-8) have a bye week this week. | ||||
I’m really hoping I can continue on the success of the past couple of weeks and maybe even bring my season total above 70% this week. Check back after the games for updates and more thoughts on the week that will be. See also: Week 9 ESPN Expert Picks.
Update: Well, another week of average picks… I went 9-5 this week to bring my total up to 90-40. I knew going into this week that I had made a number of somewhat risky picks, and unfortunately, most of them didn’t pan out. And of course, the week that I doubt the Lions offense and Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, they go and put up 44 points on the Broncos and set an NFL record for single-game rushing yards respectively… nice. Other picks that went wrong: I should have stuck with the Bills, I should never pick the Raiders and always be careful with those Seahawks. Great games were seen in Kansas City (Favre slings, Packers win!!) and Indianapolis. Baltimore… what have you become? Check back Tuesday for week 10!
Posted in: Sports