Reinspire :: NFL Divisional Predictions

NFL Divisional Predictions

January 9, 2007, 5:59 PM | 16 Comments

NFL logo As I’m writing this I’m watching the BCS Championship match-up between Ohio State and Florida and so far it’s been more exciting than 3 of the Wild Card games were this past weekend. Even though it wasn’t nearly as exciting as it could have been, last week I ended up picking the games a perfect 4-0 to start the playoffs.

Looking at the way the match-ups have shaken out, this week won’t be nearly as easy to pick as it was last week, but there should be a lot more excitement. A number of interesting scenarios will play out this week, but the number one thing I’ll be watching is whether or not the teams that had a first round bye are going to be better of after having that break.

Last year the Colts rested a lot of their starters during their final regular season game, had the first round bye, and came back looking extremely rusty in their loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers. Whether or not that will happen to some of the first round bye holders this year remains to be seen, but for some of them, a week off may not have been a good thing.

Anyways, without further ado, here are my 2007 Divisional Round picks!

Away	Home	Comments
Colts (14-4)	Ravens (13-4)	See below:
Wow. The Colts defense really brought it last week against the Chiefs and basically shut down their offense. The one glaring mark on that game were those 3 interceptions thrown by Peyton Manning. When your QB turns the ball over that many times in the playoffs, usually you won’t be winning the game, but the Colts defense was able to atone for Manning’s mistakes. As nice as that win was for the Colts, they’re going to need to play better on offense this week if they expect to beat that Ravens D. Baltimore has been exceptional all season long. Ever since Brian Billick made the decision to fire Jim Fassel and call the offensive plays himself, the Ravens offense has looked almost as good as their defense. Tough pick for this game that I went back and forth on several times, but I’ll take the Colts. Peyton Manning will look to rebound from a terrible individual effort last week.
Eagles (10-8)	Saints (11-6)	See below:
The Saints have been an amazing surprise and it’s been exciting to watch them make their run this season. Congratulations goes to Sean Payton for being named the Associated Press Coach of the Year, a much deserved reward for the job he’s done this season. In the NFC, the Saints are my number 1 seeded team because of the balance they have. Not only were they the NFC’s #1 ranked offense in the regular season, but they also ranked #4 in defense. Last week the Eagles proved that they definitely were the team to beat in the NFC East, but as great as their story has been this season and as well as Jeff Garcia and Brian Westbrook have played, I think the Saints have the edge in this contest.
Seahawks (10-8)	Bears (14-3)	See below:
In their regular season finale, the Bears (and particularly Rex Grossman) looked completely lost. Their defense is great, but their offense has been hit or miss all season and 2 weeks ago was just more proof of that fact. Fans in Chicago have been calling for Brian Griese to replace Grossman at quarterback, but he didn’t look much better than Rex against the Packers, so really, how much of an upgrade would he be? I think the Bears are a good team, but they’re probably not as good as their 13-3 regular season record. The Seahawks are lucky to still be alive in the playoff picture. Tony Romo’s botched hold last week didn’t officially hand the game to the Seahawks, but how many Cowboys were looking very optimistic after that mistake? The Seahawks have had a lot of injury problems this season and are definitely not the same team that went to the Super Bowl one year ago. Even though I don’t think the Bears have what it takes to make it to the Super Bowl, I think they should be able to knock off the Seahawks at home fairly easily.
Patriots (14-4)	Chargers (14-3)	See below:
This is the game of the week! The Patriots are a scary team when it comes to the playoffs, and you can bet San Diego is a little bit scared of what Bill Belichick has planned for them. The Chargers have a great defense this year and that will be the key to this game. If the Chargers can frustrate Tom Brady early and put a lot of pressure on him, they’ll give league MVP LaDainian Tomlinson and their offense a great chance to win this game. On the other defense, if any coach can figure out a way to stop L.T., it’s Belichick. He’s proven over and over that he’s a master game-planner and his preparation will be key to the Patriots chances of winning. This is a tough, tough game to pick but I’m going to take the Chargers for 3 reasons. Rest, home-field advantage, and L.T. We’ll see how it goes though.

This week looks to feature 4 exciting match-ups and I’m expecting a lost of very close finishes. Here are this week’s ESPN Expert Picks. Be sure to check back after the games for updates and closing thoughts on what should be a great Divisional playoff round.

Update: What a weekend! I said that I thought these games would all be exciting, but what a finish to that Patriots/Chargers game. Anyways, despite the Patriots victory I went 3-1 this week to bring my playoff total to a pretty good 7-1. Next week’s AFC showdown between the Colts and the Patriots is going to be big! Check back Tuesday for my Conference Championship predictions.

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Comments

1. Chris - January 9, 2007, 9:56 PM

Ohio State played Florida, not Florida State. I know a few Gator fans that might not be very happy with that mix up, considering how FSU played this season.

2. Jonathan Eckmier - January 9, 2007, 9:58 PM

Oops, thanks for the heads-up Chris, it’s been updated. I’m not sure what I was thinking.

3. Kris - January 10, 2007, 6:57 PM

GO PATS!!!! All the way to the Super Bowl!!!!

4. Rockwell - January 11, 2007, 1:27 AM

J.E….

Your chrystal ball remains clear. May you shine on. I should have taken your advice, as usual, last week.

This week, I’m going with the Ravens. That will be a real tussle, so I can see how you went back and forth. The AFC games will be a notch better this week than those NFC contests. Seems I have the script down for Sunday contests… it is just the Saturday games that throw me.

5. Jonathan Eckmier - January 11, 2007, 11:46 AM

Kris: :)

Rockwell: No crystal balls here, just good ol’ fashioned analysis. You could be correct with your Raven prediction, as this will be a very tough match for both teams.

6. Katan Patel - January 11, 2007, 10:47 PM

Jonathan,

I agree that the Bears are prime to knock off the Seahawks this weekend, but I don’t think I’m as sure of this as you. When Grossman’s bad, he can really be god awful and although Seattle has a cut-and-paste defense, it should be able capitalize and completely shut down the offense. Unless Chicago’s defense can show up and play like they did during the first half of the season, it could prove to be a long game for both teams.

7. Jonathan Eckmier - January 12, 2007, 10:31 AM

Katan: I wouldn’t really say I’m “sure” of anything at this point. This whole season has been full of upsets and uncertainty.

Your points are very true; when Rex Grossman is bad, he’s extremely bad. The quarterback rating is one I don’t fully understand but I do know this: if a QB doesn’t complete a single pass all game but also doesn’t throw any interceptions, he’d end up with a QB rating of 39.6. 5 times this season Rex has had a QB rating of less than 40, 3 times it was less than 11 and twice he’s bottomed out at 1.3 and 0. That’s just bad.

With all that said though, when Grossman plays well, he’s very good. 7 times this year he’s had a QB rating over 100. What that says to me is that if the Bears play to their potential and as long as Rex doesn’t screw it up, they should be able to handle the Seahawks who are simply NOT the team they were a year ago.

8. web - January 13, 2007, 8:47 AM

Jeck,

Sorry for the late addition its been a busy week at webster central over here.

You are right 75% of the way, but the pats will beat the bolts – let me tell you why.

Phillip Rivers.

Belichick prides himself on being able to take away your favorite toy and make you play with something that is uncomfortable to you. This is well documneted, see “The Greatest Show on Turf” circa 2001.

This team is much diffrent than previous superbowl team, infact less than 10% of the players on this team have more than one ring.

But the majority of rings exists where it counts the D line, The QB and Coach.

Hear me now and listen to me later: Phillip Rivers will be forced to throw.

He will make 4+ bad decisions which will conver to 2+ turnovers. (1 INT, 1 Forced Fumble) the Pats will score one TD off turnovers and win this thing 21-14.

xoxoxo

9. web - January 13, 2007, 8:53 AM

BTW: The Pats are 12-4 not 13-4 .. unless in canada they play an extra game that I did not see, either or I am glad they won.

10. Rockwell - January 13, 2007, 1:31 PM

Sorry about the “crystal” misspelling… so I have to redeem myself.

The Pats are 13-4 if you include the post-season.

And FYI… Rivers chooses to spell his first name with only one “l” which tends to catch many of us.

Tomlinson is the key… can Belichick really shut him down?

11. Jonathan Eckmier - January 13, 2007, 3:29 PM

Web: As Rockwell stated, the Patriots are 13-4 if you include their first round playoff game, which I am :).

I think that if any coach can shut down L.T., it’s got to be Bill Belichick. He’s a master game-planner and you’re right, they’re going to make Rivers throw. If they successfully shut down L.T., the Chargers will likely try to go to Antonio Gates and Keenan McCardell a lot. Belichick knows that and will be ready for it.

The Patriots/Chargers game may be the best game on the schedule this weekend and I really think it could go either way. I think the Chargers will need to rely on their defense to win this game.

12. web - January 14, 2007, 10:30 AM

Jeck – understandable re: the 13-4 record.

You are 2 for 2 right now .. I hope the Bears win today and you finish this round at 3 of 4.

13. web - January 15, 2007, 10:26 AM

WOW, the Chargers coughed that one up. I was wrong about Rivers crumbling .. but they (the Chargers) did make alot of errors and lost this game.

They could have put this game away in the first quarter, they didn’t. Against a 3 time superbowl winner – you gotta put them away when you have the chance.

Peyton/Brady bowl, round 3 next week.

Can’t wait. Colt’s look much improved.

14. Jonathan Eckmier - January 15, 2007, 11:14 AM

Web: You’re right, the Chargers should’ve won that game and didn’t capitalize on Brady’s mistakes. In my opinion, the play that killed the Chargers was that fumble RIGHT after Brady’s 3rd INT. I still can’t believe how well L.T. was able to run all over the Pats D though, I was expecting them to at least make it difficult for him. And hats off to Philip Rivers, he didn’t look anything like a QB starting in his first playoff game and he gave his team a really good chance to win.

15. Chris - January 15, 2007, 1:34 PM

As a Patriots fan, I was getting worried towards the end of the game, especially with Brady having thrown 3 INT’s. But, despite the 100+ yard game by Tomlinson, the Pat’s D kept the Chargers O from capitalizing.

It wasn’t a very pretty win, but in the playoffs, a win is a win is a win!

I made my picks for this week, here. If anyone is interested in reading them.

16. Kris - January 20, 2007, 11:25 AM

I agree, my Pat’s looked bad, BUT, like Chris said a win is a win is a win and will take it!! I just hope they play like the Great Pro’s they are this week. I am not asking for a blow out game but not a nail biter like last week. I loved the fake out 2 pointer that Brady did. Tomorrow is my birthday, I would love it if they would win the AFC Championship!!! GO PATRIOTS!!!!!