December 12, 2006

NFL Week 15 Predictions

December 12, 2006, 6:21 PM | 9 Comments

Note: Predictions for week 15 of the 2008 NFL season can be found here: NFL Week 15 Predictions.

History was made during week 14 of the 2006 season when LaDainian Tomlinson scored his 29^th total touchdown, a new NFL record. It’s exciting to watch this kind of thing take place, and even more exciting to see where LT ends up after the next 3 games. 29 touchdowns are impressive, but what’s more impressive is that the previous record (28 by Shaun Alexander in 2005) was beaten in only 13 games.

Tomlinson had a great week last week and it was nice to see him celebrate the accomplishment with his entire team, especially the offensive line. My picks last week were also fairly good at 11-5 to bring me back up over 60% (.606 if you must know) for the season. As nice as that is, I’m not satisfied yet and I’ll be hoping for a few more great weeks ahead.

This week brings us our first Saturday night game of the year, and it’s a good one. The NFC East leading Cowboys will be making their way to Atlanta, where the Falcons are still fighting for their playoff lives. It should be a great game.

Really the only thing I’m not excited about when it comes to having another day to watch football is that it’s one more game that we have to put up with Bryant Gumble’s terrible play calling. Hopefully the NFL Network will find someone else for next year, because he’s both boring and annoying at the same time. Chris Collinsworth however is one of the most entertaining colour analysts in football, so hearing him 3 times a week (Thursday, Saturday and Sunday nights) isn’t so bad.

Week 15 Game of the Week: Bengals at Colts.

This would be a good time for the Colts defense to step up to the plate. Last week’s loss to Jacksonville proved a few things:

1. The Colts cannot stop the run, period. They gave up 375 total rushing yards.
2. Peyton Manning and the offense cannot always bail out their non-existent defense. Basically if the Colts want a chance to win, the offense is going to have to score on every drive.
3. The Colts don’t have a very good chance in what will be a very tough AFC playoff tournament.

It’s really unfortunate for the Colts who started out so well this year and looked like their defense wasn’t going to be that much of an issue. We’re starting to see though that there may be some truth the old adage:

Offense wins games…
Defense wins championships.

If I’m the Colts front office right now I’d be getting a little bit worried that we’re about to blow our last shot to really make a run towards the Super Bowl. If the Colts defense doesn’t figure something out before January, not only will they have lost their first-round bye, but they may be looking at a very early exit from the playoffs in the wild card round. At this point last year we were wondering if the Colts would beat the Chargers to get to 14-0, but now we’re wondering if the Colts are about to suffer a massive implosion.

That’s about enough on the Colts, so here are my predictions for week 15:

Away	Home	Comments	Pick	Result
49ers (6-8)	Seahawks (8-6)	So the Seahawks were 5-0 with both Hasselbeck & Alexander in the lineup until they lost to the Cardinals. They still have control of the NFC West, but losses like that don’t make them all that intimidating come playoff time.
Cowboys (9-5)	Falcons (7-7)	Tony Romo looked normal last week, but it was Dallas’ defense that didn’t stop the Saints from scoring. The Falcons are still clinging to playoff hopes, but Dallas should be able to bounce back.
Browns (4-10)	Ravens (11-3)	Beating the Chiefs in Kansas City last week was a great step for the Ravens.
Lions (2-12)	Packers (6-8)	With 3 games left, Brett Favre is only 7 TD passes away from Marino’s all-time record. If he has a big game this week against Detroit, that record could be matched by the end of the season.
Texans (4-10)	Patriots (10-4)	If the Patriots rarely ever lose 2 games in a row, you can bet they’ll be even more difficult to beat this week after getting shut out by Miami last Sunday.
Jaguars (8-6)	Titans (7-7)	As good as the Titans have been over the past 6 weeks, they still aren’t going to the playoffs. They can play spoiler this week though if they beat the Jaguars who still have a chance.
Dolphins (6-8)	Bills (7-7)	If this game was in Miami I’d probably take the Dolphins, but the Bills have really come alive over the past several games, and like I’ve said before, are starting to show a lot of promise for 2007.
Jets (8-6)	Vikings (6-8)	It’s been a very disappointing year for the Vikings and a better-than-expected year for the Jets. Minnesota is only 3-3 at home this season and the Jets are 4-2 on the road. Advantage: Jets.
Steelers (7-7)	Panthers (6-8)	Carolina is still in the playoff hunt because they play in the NFC. Problem is, they’re just not playing very good football right now and they can’t finish games.
Buccaneers (3-11)	Bears (12-2)	Last week Rex Grossman showed the same kind of poise that got him off to such a great start this season. If Grossman can keep playing like he played in those games, Chicago will be a very scary team next month.
Redskins (5-9)	Saints (9-5)	The Saints are the full package this season. Their defense does just enough to keep their offense on the field, and when they’re firing on all cylinders, they’re as explosive as any other offense in the NFL. 42 points last week against Dallas without Joe Horn in the lineup.
Broncos (8-6)	Cardinals (4-10)	Denver is probably out of the playoff picture, but they still have a chance to make it given their remaining schedule. Next week’s game against the Bengals will be crucial, but they should get Jay Cutler his first win this week in the desert.
Eagles (8-6)	Giants (7-7)	I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants don’t make it to the post-season this year. Jeff Garcia has done a great job in Philly and it seems like everyone on the Eagles offense has stepped up big time. Philadelphia seems to have a “win and you’re in” mentality about them at exactly the right time.
Rams (6-8)	Raiders (2-12)	It’s been frustrating for the Rams this season, but the Raiders could provide an outlet for their frustration this week.
Chiefs (7-7)	Chargers (12-2)	This is truly a great season for the Chargers, who really look like the team to beat in the AFC now. If they can stop the run this week, they should get win #12.
Bengals (8-6)	Colts (11-3)	Can’t tackle, can’t stop the run, and can’t really defend the pass due to said tackling issues. Things are falling apart quickly for the Colts, and Peyton Manning can’t bail them out. The Bengals are still fighting for their playoff lives and I really think they have the edge this week.

So far I’m still holding my ground compared to the ESPN Experts, but I’m hoping that things will start to get even better. Last year at this point I was 9 correct predictions ahead of this season; just to add some perspective. Share your thoughts with us and check back after the games for updated standings and more thoughts on week 15.

Update: Another good week this week going 12-4 and bringing my total for the season up to 138-86. What did we learn this week? Don’t bet against Peyton Manning at home in December, especially when his team is being ripped in the media. Manning played almost flawlessly tonight. Anyways, see you tomorrow for my week 16 picks!

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